TL/$ Currency Rate vs Retail Trade Volume
Local Fests are important dates to be considered
Christmas and sale periods are always important time frames
for the retailers all around the world, the difference in Turkey is that the
consumption show a greater jump in Ramadan (Eid) and Sacrifice Fests compared
to new years and sale time. It is an important lesson that a multinational
operating in Turkey should consider, where all merchandising and window changes
are made in parallel to European guidelines and strong focus on holiday windows and
neglecting the local fests.
Apparel&FTW sales less affected comp to nonfood sales
in FX-rate changes
After 2014 where TL/$ rate has risen faster compared to
prior periods, the difference between non-food retailing and apparel retailing
changed in favor of apparel retailing, here one can interpret this outcome as
after food products, the budgets allocated to apparel and FTW is affected less
than other non-food categories in hard-times.
The retail sales jumped during sacrifice and Ramadan fests
in the last 5 years however we should consider that the date of the holly fests
change and they are always 11 days earlier compared to previous year. Meaning
that Ramadan fests move away from the back to school period to the summer
season (we have seen this in 2014), where Ramadan fests sales were not as strong
as compared to previous years. Likely Sacrifice fests move close to the "back to
school" period which means that in 2015 the retail sales in sacrifice fest in
2015 will be much higher compared to Ramadan fest. Of course this also
means that we will be losing one of the special dates out of 3 where sales rocketed;
in 2015 back to school and sacrifice will be together and the Ramadan will be
lost in the mid of June.
Trade indexes from
tuik.gov.tr (in constant prices where 2010 average is 100)
Monthly average Fx rate
has been calculated from the tcmb.gov.tr time series data
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